The Hardinian Taboo
This article is an assimilation of reading on this subject by Mike Pilkington. Any comments or discussion can be sent to him at empilkington@compuserve.com
| High | = | 12 | Billion by 2050 | |
| Medium | = | 10 | Billion by 2050 | |
| Low | = | 8 | Billion by 2050 |
RATES OF GROWTH
| 1. | Developed Countries | |
| Europe - Now steady,decreasing after 2005 | ||
| Rest of developed world - rising at 0.6% per annum | ||
| 2. | Developing Countries | |
| These will provide 94% of future growth | ||
| Africa - 740 million in 1995 rising to 2.27 billion in 2050 | ||
| Nigeria - 100 million in 1995 rising to 382 million |
CONSEQUENCES OF OVERPOPULATION
The consequences of over population have become known as "Demographic Entrapment"
| This means simply: | |||
| 1. | Too many people | ||
| 2. | Too little food | ||
| 3. | Too little money | ||
| 4. | Nothing to trade | ||
This leads to a vicious circle leading to famine,civil wars and massacres
| The solution is: | |||
| 1. | Having fewer children | ||
| 2. | Increasing agricultural yield | ||
| 3. | Migration | ||
| 4. | Developing an export industry |
| "Slowing population growth and acheiving sustainable development are impossible without the empowerment of women through | |||
| 1. | Education | ||
| 2. | Employment | ||
| 3. | Equal status." | ||
| Cairo Conference on World Population 1994 - BMJ Sept 1994 | |||
| Region | Population mid 1997(millions) | Projected Population 2010 | Projected population 2025 |
| World | 5840 | 6894 | 8036 |
| Africa | 743 | 990 | 1313 |
| Sierra Leone | 4.4 | 6.1 | 8.2 |
| North America | 298 | 331 | 372 |
| USA | 267.7 | 297.7 | 335.1 |
| Latin America | 490 | 589 | 691 |
| Asia | 3552 | 4220 | 4914 |
| Europe | 729 | 728 | 706 |
| Switzerland | 7.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| United Kingdom | 59 | 58.6 | 57.2 |
| Oceania | 29 | 34 | 39 |
| Infant Mortality/100,000 live births | Total Fertility Rate (average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime) | Maternal deaths/100.000 live births | %Married women using contraception | Life expectancy | |
| World | 59 | 3 | 460 | 56 | 66 |
| Africa | 89 | 5.6 | 880 | 24 | 53 |
| Sierra Leone | 195 | 6.5 | 1800 | _ | 34 |
| North America | 7 | 1.9 | 8 | 71 | 76 |
| USA | 7.3 | 2 | 8 | 71 | 76 |
| Latin America | 39 | 3 | 180 | 67 | 69 |
| Asia | 58 | 2.9 | 410 | 59 | 65 |
| Europe | 10 | 1.4 | 10 | _ | 73 |
| Switzerland | 5 | 1.5 | 4 | _ | 79 |
| United Kingdom | 6.2 | 1.7 | 7 | 72 | 77 |
| Oceania | 24 | 2.4 | 290 | _ | 74 |
FURTHER READING
Cairo Conference on World Population (Cairo I)1994 - BMJ Sept 1994
Cairo Conference on World Population (Cairo II) 1996 - BMJ 19 Oct 1996
To the point of farce: a Martian view of the Hardinian taboo-the silence that surrounds population control - BMJ 1997;315:1441-3
Website about demographic entrapment
Web address: Population Reference Bureau
Briefing Pack on population and development - Marie Stopes International (Tel (44 171) 388 3740)